The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the global economy faces a recession risk if the war with Iran persists, leading to sustained high energy prices.

• In a worst-case scenario, global growth could fall below 2% by 2026, a level not seen since the Covid pandemic, potentially triggering a global recession.
• The IMF's warning comes as energy prices have surged due to the conflict affecting the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
• The UK is forecast to be the hardest hit advanced economy, with its growth estimate for this year cut to 0.8%.

The Kenyan government is partnering with private sector investors to establish a strategic petroleum reserve in Mombasa, aiming to enhance energy security and mitigate the impact of global supply shocks.

• Kenya plans to create a national fuel buffer system, as it currently relies solely on import schedules.
• Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi announced the ongoing discussions for the contingency storage facility.
• Kenya imported 5.2 million tonnes of petroleum products in 2024, highlighting its significant reliance on imports, often obtained through government-to-government deals.

Oil prices eased on Tuesday as hopes of new peace talks between the US and Iran emerged following President Donald Trump's announcement that Tehran had contacted Washington about a potential agreement.

• Global benchmark Brent crude fell by about 1% to $98.40 a barrel.
• President Donald Trump suggested a potential deal after negotiations failed over the weekend.
• Discussions in Pakistan proposed suspending Iran's nuclear activity, but an agreement remains distant.

Britain’s total retail sales saw a significant increase of 3.6 percent year-on-year in March, driven by robust food sales, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).

• Total retail sales up 3.6 percent in March, exceeding the 12-month average of 2.6 percent.
• Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, attributed the growth to an early Easter.
• Food sales rose by 6.8 percent, while non-food sales grew by a modest 0.9 percent, with inflation and global conflicts cited as concerns.