A new report from the Danish Refugee Council warns that the anticipated El Niño rains could displace up to 1.03 million Kenyans.

• Displacement figures range from 297,000 (Lower scenario) to 1.03 million (Severe scenario).
• The National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) concurs with these projections, estimating around 500,000 people could be affected.
• Areas like the Tana River basin, Mandera, and Dadaab are identified as high-risk zones, with potential for severe flooding and subsequent displacement.

Kenya is bracing for a wetter-than-usual October to December rainfall season, with above-average rains predicted across many regions, including Nairobi, the Coast, and Nyanza.

• The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) forecasts that most counties will receive above-normal rainfall, potentially enhanced by a strengthening El Niño event and a likely positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
• Areas like Nairobi, Mombasa, and several counties in Nyanza and the eastern regions are expected to experience prolonged wet spells and isolated storms.
• The season is anticipated to have prolonged wet periods punctuated by isolated storms, with rainfall extending into January in many western and central regions.

Kenya is bracing for an enhanced October-December short rains season, with projections of above-average rainfall across 80% of the country and prolonged wet spells likely to include isolated storms.

• 80% of Kenya is expected to receive above-average rainfall during the October-December season.
• The forecast comes from the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA), influenced by a strengthening El Niño event.
• Prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms are anticipated, with the onset of rains varying across different regions.