Despite significant tariff increases in the U.S., global trade experienced robust growth in the first half of 2025, according to a special update to the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, produced in partnership with NYU Stern. This resilience indicates that while trade policies are creating turbulence, they are not halting international business expansion.

• Global trade grew faster in the first half of 2025 than any half-year since 2010, excluding the pandemic rebound.
• The Tracker projects a 2.5% annualized growth rate in global trade volumes from 2025 to 2029, matching the previous decade's pace.
• Trade policy turbulence hit North America's trade growth outlook hardest, with forecasts downgraded from 2.7% to 1.5%, while South & Central America and Middle East & North Africa saw upgrades.
• U.S.–China business ties diminished, but globalization remains at record high levels with no major split of the world economy between geopolitical blocs.