Kenya’s Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) has red-flagged the Ruto administration’s fiscal outlook for 2025/26, citing “overly optimistic” revenue targets and an increased dependence on domestic borrowing that could strain the private sector. The independent watchdog expressed serious doubts about the government’s ability to meet its ambitious Kenya Shillings 3.4 trillion revenue collection goal.

• The PBO warns that consistent revenue shortfalls and a narrow tax base threaten the credibility of the national budget.
• Treasury CS John Mbadi's department faces scrutiny over its Sh3.4 trillion revenue forecast for the 2025/26 fiscal year.
• The budget watchdog criticised a proposed 5 percent withholding tax on all betting withdrawals, including original stakes, fearing it could significantly deter bettors and undermine revenue goals.
• A projected Kenya Shillings 643.3 billion in net domestic borrowing is expected to exert upward pressure on interest rates and crowd out private sector credit.
• The PBO projects a more cautious economic growth of 5.1 percent for 2025/26, compared to the government's 5.3 percent forecast.