Kenya's elections are primarily determined by voter turnout and effective mobilization, rather than compelling ideas or persuasion. The author argues that many elections are lost due to a failure to convert political energy into actual votes.

• The core argument posits that Kenyan elections are won by mobilization—ensuring voters are registered, informed, and turn out—not by persuasion through speeches or manifestos.
• The article highlights that despite strong persuasion during the recent anti-Finance Bill demonstrations by young Kenyans, this did not automatically translate into electoral success due to a lack of mobilization infrastructure.
• Case studies from Nairobi, Machakos, and Narok counties illustrate how successful electoral campaigns consistently relied on deep ground networks and turnout engineering rather than just the popularity of candidates or ideas.
• Since 2013, parties like Jubilee and later UDA have mastered turnout engineering, investing in ward-level mobilization and logistics, which the author states is why mobilisation has repeatedly beaten persuasion.