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Originally published by Capital Newstop
December 23, 2025
3h ago
ODM Faces Internal Divisions and Uncertain Future in Post-Raila Era, TIFA Poll Shows
Findings released by TIFA Research depict a party at a strategic crossroads, struggling to define its identity in the post-Raila era amid its uneasy cooperation with President William Ruto’s Broad-Based Government. - Kenya breaking news | Kenya news today | Capitalfm.co.ke..
✨ Key Highlights
A new TIFA Research survey reveals that Kenya's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is facing significant internal divisions and an uncertain future following the death of its long-serving leader, Raila Odinga. The party, while growing in popularity nationally, is struggling with cohesion and direction, especially concerning its relationship with President William Ruto’s Broad-Based Government.
- ODM’s national popularity has risen to 20 per cent, surpassing President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 16 per cent.
- A plurality of 34 per cent of ODM supporters prefer the party to field its own presidential candidate in 2027, with only 19 per cent willing to back Ruto.
- Internal tensions are evident, including criticism over Raila Odinga’s elder brother, Oburu Odinga’s, informal elevation and his support for continued engagement with the government.
- The traditional “kingpin effect” has diminished, with the proportion of Luo respondents looking to a community leader for political direction falling from 63 per cent to 47 per cent since Raila’s death.
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