Inside the rotting orange, ODM’s death looms before 2027

ODM faces its toughest test since Raila’s death. Infighting and unclear direction threaten its survival in the 2027 elections..

✨ Key Highlights

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), once Kenya’s strongest opposition, is facing an existential crisis following the death of its founder, Raila Odinga, on October 15, 2025. Internal conflicts and confusing leadership signals threaten to lead to its political irrelevance by the 2027 General Election.

ODM is grappling with internal divisions over whether to support President William Ruto in 2027 or field its own candidate.
Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga, Raila’s elder brother and new party leader, has given mixed signals about the party’s future direction.
A TIFA Research survey from December 2025 shows only 19 percent of ODM supporters want the party to back President Ruto.

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