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Originally published by Capital Business
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business
January 6, 2026
2d ago

A prediction market user made $436,000 betting on Maduro’s downfall

A prediction market user made $436,000 betting on Maduro’s downfall

JAN 6 - A bettor made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Venezuela's president just before it was officially announced, raising questions Kenya breaking news | Kenya news today |..

✨ Key Highlights

A user on the crypto-powered prediction market platform, Polymarket, made over $436,000 from a $32,537 bet on Nicolás Maduro's downfall just before President Donald Trump announced his seizure. This incident has raised concerns about potential insider trading in prediction markets.

  • The anonymous account joined Polymarket last month and made four bets, all related to Venezuela.
  • Odds of Maduro's exit jumped from 6.5% to 11% in the hours before the announcement on January 3.
  • Dennis Kelleher, CEO of Better Markets, stated this bet "has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information."
  • Congressman Ritchie Torres introduced a bill to ban government employees from trading on prediction markets with "material nonpublic information."
  • Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, serves in advisory roles at prediction market companies Kalshi and Polymarket.

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