The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has increased its global growth forecast for 2026, driven by strong tech investments, but warns of potential disruptions from a reappraisal of AI productivity gains and renewed trade tensions. Global economic growth is predicted to remain steady at 3.3 percent this year.

• The IMF raised its 2026 forecast by 0.2 percentage points from October.
• IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas highlighted "tailwinds from the AI and tech investment boom" as offsetting trade challenges.
• Global inflation is expected to decrease from an estimated 4.1 percent in 2025 to 3.8 percent in 2026.
• New trade tensions, such as those initiated by US President Donald Trump, and policy uncertainty surrounding AI are identified as significant downside risks.
• The US Supreme Court is expected to rule in early 2026 on the legality of Trump's use of emergency powers for tariffs.