Escalating Gulf tensions are testing Kenya's trade resilience, impacting key export sectors and highlighting vulnerabilities in its supply chains, despite efforts to diversify.

• The conflict is causing disruptions to shipping routes, leading to higher fuel costs and impacting sectors like fresh produce and meat exports.
• Kenya's deepening partnership with the UAE, including a US$1 billion “AI for Development” initiative, faces immediate pressures from the ongoing crisis.
• While government officials like Cabinet Secretary for Trade and Industry Lee Kinyanjui suggest manageable adjustments, private-sector leaders express caution regarding the slowdown in export activity and lack of structured government engagement.