A prolonged war centered on Iran carries the significant risk of destabilizing South Asia, potentially redrawing its strategic balance and impacting countries like Pakistan and Afghanistan far beyond immediate economic shockwaves.

• The conflict could ignite existing fragilities along Pakistan's western border with Iran and Afghanistan, creating openings for militant and criminal networks.
• Pakistan's weakened economy and internal divisions make it vulnerable to cumulative shocks including energy price spikes, border instability, and potential refugee inflows.
• Afghanistan, already fragile and aid-dependent, could face further displacement and increased pressure on its weak institutions, potentially becoming a default destination for a crisis it did not create.