Kenya is preparing for a worst-case scenario as meteorologists forecast an 81% probability of strong El Niño conditions, predicting above-normal rainfall for the October-November-December season.

• An estimated 1.5 million people could be affected, with up to 500,000 potentially displaced.
• The National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) is leading preparations, focusing on disruptions to transport, health, and essential services, particularly in North Eastern Kenya.
• Authorities are urging businesses to restock essentials and are planning for aerial evacuations and alternative shelters to avoid repeating past infrastructure failures.