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Originally published by Nation Newstop
September 3, 2026
5h ago
Confused by rain forecasts? Here's how to make sense of them

When a forecast says an area could receive more than 400mm of rain, what does the “mm” actually mean?..
✨ Key Highlights
Confused by rainfall forecasts? The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority explains how to interpret terms like 'millimetres' and 'above average' rainfall.
- One millimetre (mm) of rainfall equals one litre of water over one square metre, but its impact varies significantly based on local climatology, such as in Nairobi versus Kakamega.
- 'Normal' rainfall is between 75% and 125% of the historical Long-Term Mean (LTM) over a 30-year period.
- 'Above-normal' rainfall means more than 125% of the historical average, not necessarily continuous rain, while 'below-normal' signifies less rain than usual, not a complete absence of rain.
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