Experts Warn of Uncertain Start to El Niño Amid Nairobi Cold

This comes as Kenyans are urged to prepare in advance for the expected El Niño rains, even as chilly conditions continue in parts of the highlands...

✨ Key Highlights

Kenyan weather experts are divided on the exact start date for the upcoming October-December short rains due to conflicting forecasting models influenced by complex climate patterns.

The uncertainty is attributed to the interaction of a strong El Niño, an emerging positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and an unclear Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Key expert Maithya wa Vilivū notes significant differences in model predictions for rainfall distribution and amounts, with forecast predictability estimated at 50-70% in certain regions.
Despite the uncertain start, the overall outlook suggests a wetter season, with a strong positive IOD potentially leading to prolonged wet spells from October 2026 to January 2027.

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