Kenya's vital tea export market faces significant uncertainty due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which threatens supply chains and payment flows.

• Kenya could lose over 20% of its Middle East export market, with potential disruptions to exports to Pakistan.
• The East African Trade Association (EATA), through its Managing Director George Omuga, warns of logistical cost hikes and depressed demand at the Mombasa Tea auction.
• In 2024, Kenya exported 13 million kilogrammes of tea to Iran valued at $32.8 million (Sh4.2billion).

The conflict involving Iran is starting to impact India significantly, threatening its energy supplies, remittance flows, and diaspora safety.

• Nearly half of India’s crude oil, LNG, and LPG shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently disrupted by conflict.
• Approximately 10 million Indians live and work in the Gulf region, sending home record remittances, which are vital for India’s economy.
• The crisis also impacts India’s strategic investments, such as its involvement with the Chabahar port in Iran.

The conflict in Iran is creating ripples that could impact daily life globally, with potential consequences for fuel prices, shipping costs, and even the cost of fertilizers.

• Petrol and diesel prices have already seen an increase, with average prices in the UK rising by 3p per litre for petrol and 5p per litre for diesel between Saturday and Thursday. US petrol prices are up approximately 23 cents per gallon.
• UK gas prices have nearly doubled in less than a week, but remain significantly below the peaks seen in 2022.
• Shipping costs are rising, with chartering a supertanker now costing over $400,000 per day, a near doubling from last week, and this could translate to higher consumer prices later.
• Fertiliser prices are up by 21% in a week, driven by reduced production and transport issues through the Strait of Hormuz.

The US government has temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil sales to India to allow oil stranded at sea to reach the country amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

• A 30-day waiver allows transactions involving oil already at sea, alleviating fears of an energy crisis in India.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated the measure aims to prevent Iran from using global energy as a hostage.
• The waiver could redirect approximately 145 million barrels of Russian crude towards Indian ports, though it doesn't fundamentally alter India's dependency on Middle Eastern supply flows.