A new report from the Danish Refugee Council warns that the anticipated El Niño rains could displace up to 1.03 million Kenyans.

• Displacement figures range from 297,000 (Lower scenario) to 1.03 million (Severe scenario).
• The National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) concurs with these projections, estimating around 500,000 people could be affected.
• Areas like the Tana River basin, Mandera, and Dadaab are identified as high-risk zones, with potential for severe flooding and subsequent displacement.

Kenya is bracing for a wetter-than-usual October to December rainfall season, with above-average rains predicted across many regions, including Nairobi, the Coast, and Nyanza.

• The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) forecasts that most counties will receive above-normal rainfall, potentially enhanced by a strengthening El Niño event and a likely positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
• Areas like Nairobi, Mombasa, and several counties in Nyanza and the eastern regions are expected to experience prolonged wet spells and isolated storms.
• The season is anticipated to have prolonged wet periods punctuated by isolated storms, with rainfall extending into January in many western and central regions.

Kenya is bracing for an enhanced October-December short rains season, with projections of above-average rainfall across 80% of the country and prolonged wet spells likely to include isolated storms.

• 80% of Kenya is expected to receive above-average rainfall during the October-December season.
• The forecast comes from the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA), influenced by a strengthening El Niño event.
• Prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms are anticipated, with the onset of rains varying across different regions.

Kenya is intensifying contingency planning and early evacuation measures ahead of potentially disruptive El Niño rains expected between October and December. The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) forecasts above-average rainfall due to strengthening El Niño conditions.

• The Niño 3.4 index has reached 2.7°C, indicating a very strong El Niño event.
• Principal Secretary for Climate Change, Eng Festus Ng’eno, emphasized the government's commitment to "early warning must translate into early action."
• Teams are mapping flood-prone areas and identifying safe relocation sites, with counties like Garissa, Wajir, and Nairobi expected to receive significant rainfall.

The Ministry of Education has confirmed that the Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education (KCSE) examinations will proceed as scheduled, despite the anticipated El Niño rains.

• The national examinations are considered "zero-sum" and cannot be postponed or delayed.
• Measures are in place to ensure candidates can access examination centers, including potential relocation of centers and the use of air transport and drones.
• Boarding schools are advised to stock adequate food supplies to mitigate potential disruptions during the examination period, scheduled between October and December 2026.

Kenya faces contrasting weather patterns, with a prolonged dry spell anticipated in the Rift Valley, Western Kenya, and Nyanza, while the Coast is set for increased rainfall.

• Weather forecasting expert Maithya Vilivu warned that sinking air is suppressing rainfall in affected western regions, suggesting conditions may only improve with a change of seasons.
• The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) forecasts above-average rainfall for the upcoming October-December short rains season, influenced by the strengthening El Niño phenomenon.
• While enhanced rainfall is expected along the Coast and southern Somalia, the onset of the OND rains will vary across the country, with some regions like Turkana and Samburu potentially experiencing poor distribution.