The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a near 100% probability that El Niño conditions will persist until February 2027, a significant increase from previous forecasts.

• Forecasts indicate an exceptionally high likelihood of El Niño persisting through to February 2027.
• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is the primary organization involved.
• UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres described the phenomenon as "nothing ever seen before," warning of extreme weather due to a rapidly heating planet.

Kenya is bracing for a largely dry September with below-average rainfall and warmer temperatures predicted across the country, according to the Kenya Meteorological Service.

• Several food-producing counties are expected to receive less rain than usual.
• The Meteorological Service warns of potential shortages in food, water, and pasture, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions.
• Higher-than-normal temperatures are forecast nationwide, with some northern and northeastern counties potentially experiencing highs up to 39°C.

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has issued a warning of below-average rainfall across several key agricultural regions in Kenya for September, sparking concerns for food security.

• Affected counties include Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Siaya, Vihiga, Nandi, and Uasin-Gishu, among others.
• The KMSA anticipates potential food, water, and pasture shortages, building on previous crop losses.
• The dry forecast also poses risks to water resources and the energy sector, particularly impacting hydro-electric dams fed by the Mt. Kenya catchment area.

The Kenyan Ministry of Health has activated its El Niño Contingency Plan to address potential health risks from anticipated heavy rains and flooding. Officials are on high alert for emergencies, including pandemics and trauma.

• The ministry is working with the Kenya Institute of Supplies Management (KISM) to improve the procurement and delivery of medical supplies.
• Director for Curative Care and Nursing Services, Dr Andrew Toro, stated the government has sufficient medical supply reserves and is enhancing surveillance against counterfeit drugs.
• KISM CEO Kenneth Matiba highlighted efforts to build a resilient supply chain system, aiming to eliminate drug stock-outs and digitize medical services.