East Africa faces potential agricultural and energy market disruptions as regional climate scientists forecast below-average rainfall for the upcoming October–December season, a critical period providing up to 70% of annual precipitation in countries like Kenya and Somalia.

• The 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF71) warned of a 55% likelihood of drier-than-usual conditions in southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and swaths of Tanzania.
• The forum, convened by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) alongside the World Meteorological Organization, attributed the forecast to evolving La Niña conditions.
• In contrast, wetter-than-average conditions are expected in parts of western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania, with rainfall possibly exceeding 300 millimeters.
• Kenya’s Environment Minister Dr. Deborah M. Barasa and Deputy Executive Secretary of IGAD Mohamed Ware emphasized the need for stronger collaboration and timely action.