The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) forecasts near-average to above-average rainfall for several key regions during Kenya's March–April–May (MAM) 2026 "Long Rains" season. This period is the country's main rainfall season, with favorable conditions expected across the Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands west and east of the Rift Valley, and parts of north-western Kenya.

• Western Kenya, the Rift Valley, and the central highlands are likely to experience near-average rainfall with a tendency toward above-average amounts, including occasional heavy rainfall events.
• The State Department of Environment and Climate Change issued this outlook following the Twelfth National Climate Outlook Forum.
• Conversely, parts of north-eastern Kenya (Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo) and the south-eastern lowlands are projected to receive near-average to below-average rainfall, with the Coast generally expecting below-average rainfall.