The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is highly confident that 2026 will be an El Niño year, with an 80% likelihood of the event occurring between June–August 2026.

• The WMO states there is a near or above 90% probability of El Niño conditions continuing until at least November.
• The UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged an end to fossil fuels, calling El Niño an "urgent climate warning" that will worsen global warming.
• Observations show unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, indicating developing El Niño conditions that could lead to extreme weather.