Kenya's weather authority has issued an El Niño alert, warning of a significant shift from dry conditions mid-year to potential heavy rainfall and flooding risks towards the end of 2026.

• There is an 80-82% likelihood of El Niño developing between June-August 2026, with probabilities rising to 90-96% for it to persist through late 2026.
• The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) is monitoring global forecasts and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
• The alert signals a potential split-year climate, posing challenges for agriculture and disaster preparedness, with drier mid-year conditions followed by increased flood risk.