The July 16 Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election is shaping up as a major political battleground, testing the political strength of key figures ahead of the 2027 General Election.

• The contest is a proxy war between President William Ruto's UDA, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua's DCP, and former President Uhuru Kenyatta's faction of the Jubilee Party.
• For President Ruto, a UDA victory would reaffirm his support in the Mt Kenya region, while defeat could signal a decline in his influence.
• The by-election is also a crucial test for Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, assessing the strength of the political movement he has built since his impeachment.
• The outcome will offer insight into who commands political loyalty in Mt Kenya and determine the momentum for the 2027 presidential race.