Kenya faces the threat of its most powerful El Nino in over four decades, with forecasters and economists warning of severe economic and food security risks.

• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) plunged to -29.1 in July, a level not seen since 1983, indicating a potentially catastrophic event.
• Analysts from Oxford Economics Africa and the US Climate Prediction Centre highlight the potential for extreme flooding, drought, and devastating impacts on the agricultural sector.
• Despite the Kenyan government activating an El Nino Contingency Plan and establishing a Sh15 billion fund, significant vulnerabilities remain due to existing economic pressures and infrastructure limitations.