A recent TIFA Research poll indicates that while many Kenyans believe Raila Odinga will support President William Ruto's 2027 re-election bid, a significant portion still views him as the face of the opposition.

• 32 percent of Kenyans surveyed believe Odinga will support Ruto in 2027, while 23 percent want him to lead the opposition.
• The survey, conducted by TIFA Research Analyst Tom Wolf, also found UDA to be the most popular party with 16 percent.
• 48 percent of Kenyans expressed no confidence in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) ahead of the 2027 polls.

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is leveraging upcoming by-elections as a strategic "dress rehearsal" for the 2027 General Elections, with plans to vigorously campaign and secure victories.

• ODM National Chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga stated the party is actively planning and mobilizing to capture power, either standalone or in a coalition.
• The by-elections will serve as a testing ground for ODM’s 2027 roadmap.
• ODM leader Raila Odinga urged restraint on 2027 presidential candidate speculation, stating a decision will be made through proper party structures at the right time.

Kenya's dominant political parties, UDA and ODM, have experienced a significant decline in support since the August 2022 General Election. A new TIFA survey reveals that nearly 60 percent of their combined support has been lost, with a dramatic increase in Kenyans identifying as non-affiliated.

• 43 percent of Kenyans now identify with no political party, becoming the largest political bloc.
• The combined support for UDA and ODM has plunged from 72 percent post-2022 elections to just 29 percent, with UDA at 16 percent and ODM at 13 percent.
• The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, emerged as the third most preferred party with 9 percent support.

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) primaries for the Kasipul Constituency by-election were delayed due to violent disruptions. The party accused one aspirant of intimidating officials and bringing "goons" to the distribution center.

• When: The nomination process was scheduled for Wednesday, September 24 ahead of the November 27 by-election.
• Who: Aspirant Newton Ogada was named by ODM as responsible for the disruption, though he claimed to be ensuring fair play.
• Key Detail: Homa Bay Deputy Governor Oyugi Magwanga's "unnecessary" presence further complicated the process, while ODM threatened "stern disciplinary action" for continued disruptions.