TIFA Polls Show Declining Party Support as ODM Faces Violent Primaries - September 2025

A TIFA survey reveals that Kenya's dominant parties, UDA and ODM, have lost significant support since the August 2022 General Election, with a dramatic increase in Kenyans identifying as non-affiliated. Another TIFA Research poll indicates that despite many Kenyans believing Raila Odinga will support President William Ruto's 2027 bid, a significant portion still views him as the face of the opposition. Amidst this, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is leveraging upcoming by-elections as a strategic "dress rehearsal" for the 2027 General Elections. However, the party's primaries for the Kasipul Constituency by-election were delayed due to violent disruptions, with the party accusing one aspirant of intimidating officials and using "goons".